REAL ESTATE NEWS FROM BETTY LABRANCHE:
SEACOAST RESIDENTIAL SALES VOLUME HITS THREE YEAR HIGH
July 7, 2010
PORTSMOUTH - With the combination of a normally active spring market, expiring homebuyer's tax credit and near record low home mortgage rates, June was apparently the "perfect real estate storm" in the nine sample seacoast towns.
According to the Seacoast Board of Realtors, sales of single-family homes reached their highest totals since June 2007. Not surprisingly, sales of homes priced under $400,000 also reached a three-year high. Single-family sales climbed 28% from May and 21% from June 2009. Inventory also reached its highest level since July 2009.
Condominium inventory, by contrast, remained about the same as it has for the past three months. Still, sales climbed a solid 12% from May and that was enough to rack-up the best sales total since August 2007. The 37 units sold was a thumping 32% improvement over June 2009. Interestingly, higher-end units, priced from $300 to $600,000 saw their best totals since August 2008.
"Realtors in the Seacoast area are very encouraged by the June statistics and can only hope that July will bring more of the same," said Joanna Rousseau, president of the Seacoast Board of Realtors. "The extension of the deadline on closing those transactions taking advantage of the tax credit will likely be a huge help."
--Joanna Rousseau
president, Seacoast Board of Realtors
JOBS AT CORE OF 2010 HOME SALES
March, 2010
The extension and expansion of the home buyer tax credit can be counted on to help home sales throughout the first half of this year, but how will markets fare after the credit expires on April 30 (with deals having until June to close)?
The health of housing for the second half of the year is dependent on jobs, and on this point the picture is mixed. Although we expect GDP growth of about 3 percent this year, job growth will lag and we could see unemployment worsen to about 10.5 percent in the second quarter before it improves.
Employment has always lagged economic growth, and for commonsense reasons. Among other factors, companies tend to hold off on hiring even as business rises until they see growth is sustainable.
However, several factors give reason to believe that the job market is moving in the right direction:
*Temporary employment is up. We've seen several months of increasing demand for temporary workers, signaling future permanent gains.
*2010 is a census year. This once-a-decade event is a big job generator in its own right. The government can be expected to hire a million people to help it count U.S. households. These temp jobs will serve as a bridge while the economy strengthens and companies ramp up hiring.
*Some key sectors are already adding jobs. The professional business service sector--which encompasses accounting, management consulting and law--got hammered in the recession, but it added 50,000 jobs in December. That's positive news for commercial markets. Meanwhile, jobs in health care service and education remain strong.
Although many pieces must fit together for real estate to gain after the tax credit expires, we can say the most important underpinning of economic health--jobs--is showing encouraging signs.
--Lawrence Yun, Chief economist of the National Association of Realtors
SEACOAST NH SALES DATA
February 1, 2010
Portsmouth - January single family and condominium sales totals declined from December totals in the nine sample seacoast towns.
According to the Seacoast Board of REALTORS, single-family sales declined by 62% and condo sales were off 24%. The totals do not come as a surprise given very low December pending numbers and the time of year. January is usually the sales year's slowest month.
Despite the decline, both totals surpassed 2009 figures. Residential sales were 13% better than January 2009, while last January there were only three condo closings. This time around there were 13.
Of the 18 single family sales, ten were for more than $400,000 and the four sales in the $700,000 to $1million category tied June for the best performance in that price group in the last 12 months.
"Despite the decline in numbers over the previous month, sales are still up over the 2009 numbers," said Joanna Rousseau, President of the Seacoast Board of REALTORS. "The closed sales in higher priced homes, is a great indication showing us that consumers are still looking for good value. It is still a great time to buy. Consumers who have been sitting on the fence should call a local REALTOR today."
--Joanna Rousseau, president, Seacoast Board of REALTORS
DECEMBER SEACOAST RESIDENTIAL AND CONDO SALES STAY STRONG
January 5, 2010
Portsmouth--The real estate tax credit continues to spur very healthy sales activity in the seacoast real estate market. According to the Seacoast Board of REALTORS, sales of single-family and residential condominium units remained strong in December, shattering anemic figures from a year ago. Residential sales in the nine-sample seacoast towns were up 104% and condos transactions 70%.
December was the fifth best month for closed residential sales, just one sale shy of November totals. Condo sales were off 26% from last month, but recorded their first $1 million-plus sale since August 2008, an Ocean Boulevard in Rye.
Opening up the real estate tax credit to current homeowners seems to have spurred robust higher-end activity, as well. Residential higher-end totals (sales exceeding $400,000) for December were the highest since August 2007. In fact the 23 sales in the $400,000-$700,000 category were the most since June 2007 and was the most active price category for the month.
Pending sales were more typical for the time of year, falling 44% from last month on the residential side and 33% for condos. Curiously, these numbers were the worst since at least 2006.
"Agents in the Seacoast are optimistic for 2010 especially with the extension and expansion of the tax credit set forth by the Worker, Homeownership and Business Assistance Act of 2009," said Joanna Rousseau, president of the Seacoast Board of REALTORS. "Consumers looking to buy their first home or longtime homeowners looking to replace a principal residence should contact a local Realtor today."
--Johanna Rousseau, president, Seacoast Board of REALTORS
Sales Headed In The Right Direction
Pending home sales in July reached their highest mark in two years, and closed sales also continued on an upward path. As a result, inventories are tightening; in June there were 3.8 million properties for sale nationally, compared with 4.5 million at the same time last year.
More broadly, there are other indications the economy is heading up. Durable goods orders have risen for three straight months because business inventories have been depleted. The stock market has also made a nice comeback, and exports have been rising faster than imports.
Thanks to these promising signs, we forecast higher home sales and stabilizing prices in the year ahead. But there are still some concerns.
First, although inventories are improving, it's possible that many owners want to put their house on the market but are waiting for conditions to improve. Banks may be doing the same with their foreclosed properties. These concerns might be off the mark; in areas where housing has been recovering, we would expect to see inventories softening as sellers and banks jump back in, but we haven't been seeing that.
Beyond the housing market, there are other economic factors that could hold back recovery. The country is looking at a continuing long-term budget deficit that could translate into higher mortgage rates. We're also looking at rising oil prices ($70 from $50 earlier this year), with that extra money shipping overseas rather than staying home. And heavy job losses make it likely foreclosures will keep rising through the remainder of the year.
Still, we have reason to be confident. With home sales heading up and inventories shrinking, prices are stabilizing. These are the key conditions needed for housing to lead the economy into growth mode. Once that happens, jobs will follow.
Author: Lawrence Yum
Cheif Economist of the National Association of Realtors
October 2009